Score a product idea against live market data
Describe the idea in plain words. An AI turns it into a market lookup; the site then pulls live comparables from the directory where you would ship it, keeps only entrants from the last 24 months, and applies sourced priors. Verdict: KILL, PASS or UNKNOWN, with the number that decided it. Nothing is estimated; when the directory publishes no usage numbers, you get UNKNOWN.
How the verdict is computed
Rule kills first: directories that own the checkout (Shopify, Telegram, Steam, Apple, Figma, OpenAI apps, Amazon, Apify, Raycast, Obsidian) are killed outright. Then the newcomer median at the attach-point becomes the 12-month reach of a solo entrant (with conservative conversions for stars, downloads, points and likes). Conversion runs from 0.0034 (a real funnel: 294 free checks, one subscriber) to 0.02 (best published case), times the 0.48 retention factor for AI products under $50/month, times the price. Under $500/month at month 12, or more than 6 months to a first dollar, is a KILL. The simulator was calibrated on six real product outcomes before it scored anything; the scripts and priors are in the kit.
The kit: measure your own sessions and the market, weekly
- Session cost anatomy for your own logs (
quota_report.py): the exact report on this site, on your machine, one command; reads only usage fields and lengths. - Demand simulator (
demand_sim.py+ priors + calibration): live connectors for GitHub, npm, VS Code Marketplace, WordPress.org, Hacker News, Apify, MCP registry, Hugging Face; scores what a solo newcomer reached at each attach-point in the last 24 months, calibrated against six real product outcomes before it scores anything. - This week's datasets: every table on this site as JSON and TSV, the plugin marketplace catalog, the issue gap maps, the 50-candidate scoring run with every verdict and its deciding number.
$39, one time. Regenerated weekly for a year; the download link you get keeps serving the newest build. MIT.
Get the kit, $39Card checkout by Stripe on this site's own account; the download page opens the moment payment completes. Questions: riley@agentexchange.work.